Applied Math Seminar

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The (Un)known (Un)knowns of COVID-19 Transmission: A Fluid Dynamicist's Perspective

Speaker: Rajat Mittal, Johns Hopkins University

Location: TBA

Date: Friday, October 30, 2020, 3:45 p.m.

Synopsis:

COVID-19 spread across the world with a speed and intensity that laid bare the limits in our understanding of the transmission pathways of such respiratory diseases. There is, however, an emerging consensus that airborne transmission constitutes an important mode for the spread of COVID-19. Each stage in this transmission pathway is mediated by complex flow phenomena, ranging from air-mucous interaction inside the respiratory tract, turbulence in the exhaled jet/ambient flow, to inhalation and deposition of these aerosols in the lungs. Inspired by the Drake Equation that provides a framework to estimate the seemingly inestimable probability of advanced extraterrestrial life, I propose a phenomenological model for estimating the risk of airborne transmission of a respiratory infection such as COVID-19. The model incorporates simple ideas from fluid dynamics with the factors implicated in airborne transmission and is designed to serve not only as a common basis for scientific inquiry across disciplinary boundaries, but to also be understandable by a broad audience outside science and academia. Given the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic and the resurgence of infections in many communities, the importance of communicating infection risk across scientific disciplines, as well as to policy/decision makers, is more important than ever.

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