Graduate Student / Postdoc Seminar

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Sampling and studying rare events in Earth and planetary science

Speaker: Jonathan Weare, Courant

Location: Warren Weaver Hall 1302

Date: Friday, April 1, 2022, 11:15 a.m.

Synopsis:

This talk will cover recent work in our group developing and applying algorithms to simulate and analyze rare events in atmospheric science and other areas. In the first part of the talk, I will review a rare event simulation scheme that biases model simulations toward the rare event of interest by preferentially duplicating simulations making progress toward the event and removing others. I will describe applications of this approach to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and instability of Mercury's orbit. In the remainder of the talk, I will describe tools that we are developing to analyze data sets of short model simulations for the statistics of long timescale events and an application to sudden stratospheric warmings.