Modeling and Simulation Group Meeting Old

Hyperbolic models for the spatial spread of epidemics: Kinetic description, data uncertainty, and numerical approach

Speaker: Giulia Bertaglia (University of Ferrara), Partner: Sylvie Bronsard

Location: Warren Weaver Hall 517

Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021, 12:30 p.m.


Most epidemiological models are rooted in the pioneering compartmental modeling proposed by Kermack and McKendrick, based on systems of ODEs, which describe only the temporal evolution of infectious disease spread, neglecting the spatial component in favor of an assumption of population and territory homogeneity.
In this talk, drawing inspiration from kinetic theory, we present stochastic hyperbolic transport models developed to study the propagation of an epidemic phenomenon described by the spatial movement and interactions of a population divided into commuters moving on a wide scale and non-commuters acting only on an urban scale. 
The numerical methodology chosen to consistently solve the resulting system of equations will also be discussed.
Application studies of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Italy demonstrate how movement dynamics play a key role in the progress of the epidemic.