MATH-GA.2046-001 Advanced Statistical Inference And Machine Learning
A rigorous background in Bayesian statistics geared towards applications in finance. The early part of the course will cover the Bayesian approach to modeling, inference, point estimation, and forecasting, sufficient statistics, exponential families and conjugate priors, and the posterior predictive density. We will then undertake a detailed treatment of multivariate regression including Bayesian regression, variable selection techniques, multilevel/hierarchical regression models, and generalized linear models (GLMs). We will continue to discuss Bayesian networks and belief propagation with applications to machine learning and prediction tasks. Solution techniques include Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, Gibbs Sampling, the EM algorithm, and variational mean field theory. We shall then introduce reinforcement learning with applications to transaction cost minimization and realistic optimal hedging of derivatives. Real world examples will be given throughout the course, including portfolio optimization with transaction costs, and a selection of the most important prediction tasks arising in buy-side quant trading.
The following four courses, or equivalent: (1) Data Science and Data-Driven Modeling, (2) Financial Securities and Markets, (3) Machine Learning & Computational Statistics, and (4) Risk and Portfolio Management. It is important you have experience with the Python stack.